Who will be overthrown first - Merkel, Trump or May?

01.10.2018

There was a paradoxical situation: simultaneously under several of the largest figures of world politics the chair swayed. Rather, the problems of these politicians began much earlier, but this fall, they are in real danger of losing power or take the path that will soon lead to this. It's about US President Donald Trump, British Prime Minister Teresa Mei and German Chancellor Angela Merkel. The former discovered a "conspiracy" in the White House, and in case of defeat of the Republicans in the upcoming midterm elections in early November, it is likely to automatically become a candidate for impeachment if the Democrats put the Senate and the House of Representatives under their control.

The threat to the British prime minister is much closer and even more real: under the parliamentary democracy, the authorities can be lost at any moment. Even during the Second World War, this misfortune several times almost happened to her predecessor on Downing Street, 10 - Winston Churchill. From September 30 to October 3 in Birmingham, the Conservative Party Congress will be held, in which there is a strong opposition to the May course. Criticism is heard from everywhere, especially by supporters of a more radical break with the EU, whose prominent representatives like former Foreign Minister Boris Johnson Mae recently expelled from her government, replacing them with gray people.It may very well be that, following the results of this forum, May will have to resign, although Johnson and Co. promise, like, personally not to criticize her, but only what she does. The promise, as we see, is very ambiguous. And even the "Scripal affaire", organized largely in order to divert the attention of British voters from the failures of their prime minister on all fronts, can not help May. Her position of all three, perhaps the most difficult.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel, a member of the three political long-livers, together with the presidents of Algeria and Russia, faced very similar problems. Of course, no one had any illusions that her final chancery term would be easy.

For the sake of this Merkel, which most Germans can not forgive a flawed migration policy, had to sacrifice very much in bargaining with the Social Democrats, which the leaders of the CDU / CSU did not like, especially in the provincia. Merkel continued to irritate ordinary Germans, not intending to seriously change her migration policy, which is conducted under dictation of supranational leaders, which caused an acute government crisis.

The CDU and CSU were hardly completely disavowed on the basis of more careful protection of German borders and deportations of "illegal immigrants". The coalition was hanging by a thread. Signed events in Chemnitz clearly showed the whole of Germany, even a part of its elite, in what the Germans got into trouble and what awaits them.

Merkel rather calmly and even arrogantly concerned that she was hated by the growing number of Germans, and a much larger number than polls show, because some are afraid to speak out frankly. Because it was a simple people, which politicians learned to manipulate. However, after Chemnitz, the situation began to change dramatically before our eyes. The dissatisfaction of Merkel accumulated on the lower floors of the society, partly because of the ugly "asylum-seekers" that she had admitted to the country and because she really sat on her post for too long and began to irritate tired voters.

This happened in large part because the elite, first of all, the party leadership became disillusioned with their leader. In the old, "happy" years Merkel (ex-chancellor Gerhard Schroeder left her a beautiful legacy) with her high ratings pulled Christian democrats behind her, up. However, in conditions when, according to polls, most Germans do not want to see Merkel at the head of the country and are in favor of her early departure, Merkel pulls the CDU down. Despite the absence of strong leaders in the party, even the gray figure instead of it today will, perhaps, look preferable.

"An alternative for Germany," a few years ago, a non-existent party, already became, according to polls, the second most popular in Germany, ahead of the Social Democrats, and the first - in the former GDR.

Merkel's wings were cut not only by the "refugees" and Islamization of the country, but her own political opportunism, through which the CDU drifted toward the center, turning its back on traditional values, allowed, for example, to formalize same-sex marriages, to eliminate the universal military duty, start paying the debts of other countries in the euro area, especially Greece. For a long time, the orientation toward the center allowed the CDU to win elections. However, in the split due to the migration crisis in Germany, this course has exhausted itself.

Tremored some time ago before Merkel, the CDU officials began to make conclusions in this situation. This week against Merkel there was a successful "coup" in the parliamentary faction of Christian Democrats. The deputies secretly voted against her old colleague, the "right hand" - Volker Cowder, not allowing him to be re-elected as head of the parliamentary faction for a position he held for 13 consecutive years. As a result of the "palace coup", this key post was taken by young and little-known politician Ralph Brinkhaus, who stated that he would "cooperate" with Merkel. Let's note, "cooperate", and not execute orders.

This upsetting for German elite event was immediately called "the decline of the Merkel era," who herself admitted that she suffered a "defeat."