10 signs of a possible war between the USA and Iran
Analysis of recent events suggests the inevitability of a military confrontation between the United States and Iran. But is the White House really ready to get involved in the largest military operation in the 21st century?
Speculations on the escalation of the crisis between the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI) are growing like a snowball. Although sober minds understand the riskiness and absurdity of the US attack on Iran, each new event only multiplies doubts about the possibility of a positive outcome.
The latest of these events was a message circulated by Reuters, according to which the State Department is considering the possibility of sending an additional 5,000 US troops to the Middle East because of its confrontation with Iran. With such a proposal, the Central Command of the US Armed Forces (Centcom) turned to the State Department.
The same number of servicemen as for the overthrow of Saddam Hussein
A week earlier, the acting head of the Pentagon, Patrick Shanghai, spoke of more impressive figures. He offered to send 120 thousand troops. The inspiration for this plan is considered the national security adviser to US President John Bolton. As the New York Times newspaper wrote at the time, the number of the military "shocked" many who got acquainted with the initiative, because George Bush sent so much manpower in 2003 to conquer Iraq.
Floating Fortress goes to the Persian Gulf
If the increase in the number of infantry - and this would be the main sign of readiness to strike Iran - is still under discussion, then the American "floating fortress" has already come close to Iran. On May 15, an aircraft carrier group led by the nuclear aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln ("Abraham Lincoln") entered the Gulf of Oman. She is accompanied by the missile cruiser Leyte Gulf (Leite Gulf) and three destroyers - Bainbridge (Bainbridge), Mason (Mason) and Nitze (Nitze) - and one or two nuclear submarines armed with Tomahawks.
Spaniards afraid to fight with Iran
It is noteworthy that the Spanish frigate Méndez Núñez (Mendez Nunez), which was part of the American compound, refused to swim in the waters of the Persian Gulf. Spanish Defense Minister Margarita Robles explained the decision for technical reasons.
Speaking in Brussels, she noted that two years ago, Madrid and Washington had agreed on the participation of 215 Spanish sailors in military exercises in honor of the 500th anniversary of the first world tour of Fernand Magellan. But when, on May 5, the Pentagon decided to deviate from the course and enter the Persian Gulf, the Spaniards suspended the execution of the agreement. Despite the workarounds of Robles, it is obvious that Spain simply does not want to be dragged into hostilities. The participation of Madrid in the attack on Iran could provoke the inclusion of other countries of the European Union, which in the conflict over the “nuclear deal” is on the side of the Iranians. The Spanish frigate will join the "Abraham Lincoln" only after the latter reaches the Indian Ocean. With the current pace it will not happen soon.
European redoubts also trembled on land
European redoubts quivered not only at sea, but also on land. May 15, Germany and the Netherlands announced the suspension of military exercises in Iraq. The reason was the warning from the United States about possible provocations and attacks on European soldiers by Iranian-supported forces, such as the Al-Hashd al-Sha'abi Shiite militia. Germany engaged 160 troops to train Iraqi forces to fight the Islamic State militants (banned in Russia). The Netherlands has 160 military and civilian personnel, including 50 in Erbil, where they train Kurdish militiamen from the Peshmerga.
United States folded embassy in Baghdad
On the same day, when the Germans and the Dutch stopped the exercises, the State Department recalled all personnel who were not performing particularly important tasks from the American embassy in Baghdad and the consulate in Erbil. A week earlier, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo flew to Iraq urgently, which is why he had to cancel his visit to Berlin.
Saudi oil attacks
When attacking Iran, the United States will rely on two major regional allies - Israel and Saudi Arabia. They are also concerned about the growing influence of Iran in the Middle East: Israel is worried about Hezbollah and the IRGC in Lebanon and Syria, the Saudis are the Hussites in Yemen. Last week, Saudi Arabia was subjected to two attacks. On May 12, two of its oil tankers were fired by drones in the territorial waters of the United Arab Emirates. One of the tankers went to the Saudi port of Ras Tanura to load oil and ship it to the United States. Some sources say that the drones launched Hezbollah troops deployed on the Iranian island of Kish. The next day, the Saudi East-West oil pipeline was attacked. Responsibility for the attack, which damaged the two pumping stations, was taken over by the Ansar Alla movement (the Hussites).
Although politicians are full of populists, and Trump is a vivid example, but the statements of the US leader also should not be discounted. The rhetoric of the head of the White House is getting tougher every day. The other day, he talked about the “consequences” and the fatal “mistakes” for Iran, and about the “end of Iran”.
Iran adds fuel to the fire
Although, by and large, the States started the conflict by withdrawing from a nuclear deal, Iran also does not slow down. In mid-May, Hassan Rouhani announced a partial withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Action Plan, which gives grounds for Trump to accuse Iran of resuming the development of nuclear weapons. From time to time, Iranians threaten to close the Strait of Hormuz, through which 1/5 of the world oil trade passes. What is not an incident Belli? The threat is not only for merchant ships, but also for military ones. And what if the strike carrier group crosses the strait, having experienced Tehran's patience?
Putin washes his hands
An alarming signal is the statement made by Vladimir Putin at a meeting with the Austrian president.
Putin made it clear that the world depends on the actions of the United States and Iran. If the two countries start a war, Russia will not be able to save Iran.
According to Reuters, it is still unclear whether the Pentagon will approve Centcom’s request. The US Department of Defense regularly receives and rejects requests from US units around the world to send additional forces. The military operation against Iran requires up to half a million personnel. Whether Trump decides on her, only he knows. These 10 facts indicate, however, that the United States is preparing for such a scenario.